In this week’s Blood Red column, Paul Gorst looks ahead to Sunday’s trip to the Etihad and why it’s what happens after it that could tilt the Premier League title in Liverpool’s direction
It might not necessarily feel like it ahead of the weekend’s Premier League action, but there should be some comfort in the knowledge that the worst case scenario for Liverpool is to find themselves ‘only’ five points clear by Sunday evening.
Given the nine-point advantage that was so tantalisingly in sight before James Tarkowski’s dramatic derby-day intervention, or the chasm of 10 had Aston Villa been negotiated, it would be understandable if the idea of the gap dwindling was not met with universal acceptance, however.
But that does a disservice to the remarkably strong position Arne Slot and his players find themselves in as they play the first of their final dozen games in the Premier League at Manchester City on Sunday.
Previous iterations of this fixture have tended to be built around a winner-takes-all narrative, with the two teams becoming intense rivals between the years of 2018 and 2022, but the emergence of Arsenal in the last two years have added a further wrinkle of intrigue for neutrals.
The stunning and shocking decline of City this season has eliminated them entirely from the title picture and their role this weekend is merely a secondary one; they are the supporting cast, attempting to be spoilsports for a Reds side who can restore their advantage to eight points at the top, should the Gunners beat West Ham United on Saturday afternoon.
Thirteen defeats from 40 this term is an indicator of just how fallible Pep Guardiola’s men are right now and there is surely no better time to end a decade-long wait for victory at the Etihad. Confidence is brittle, injuries are piling and it all appears, from the outside looking in, to be a deeply unhappy place just now.
Liverpool’s visit to City marks the end of a punishing run that has seen the Reds play against three of the top five, their local rivals – in the final game at their historic home – and the side who, at the time, had the best home record in the Premier League in Brentford.
From that exacting schedule so far, Slot’s side are unbeaten and have gained eight points from the 12 on offer. The result of Sunday’s game will be more instructive as to how well placed title hopes sit for the remainder of the campaign and victory will only embolden those who have remained insistent in recent months that it is Liverpool’s to lose.
What should really instil confidence is what happens after Sunday’s game at the Etihad. Newcastle United visit for a dress rehearsal of the March 16 Carabao Cup final, which is the first of seven home games between now and the end of the campaign.
Liverpool might have the best away record in the division and their only loss this term was indeed at home, but Anfield remains their bread and butter and when a major honour is on the line, few can inspire more than those supporters. That the lion’s share of the remaining fixtures are played in their L4 stronghold, including May’s visit from Arsenal, should foster the belief that Slot’s men have what it takes to get over the line.
Arsenal, in contrast, have to visit third-place Nottingham Forest and a resurgent Everton before their game against Liverpool, a venue they have not won at since 2012. Throw in the hosting of a Newcastle side who have beaten them three times this season, a London derby with Chelsea and a trip to the box of frogs that is Manchester United and it amounts to the sort of fixture list a side trailing by a minimum of five points would not want to see on their to-play list.
Factor in an injury list that will see them without Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus for all of those games and Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka for at least a handful and it’s clear that it is Mikel Arteta’s title pretensions that are being played on the high-wire without a net and not Liverpool’s.
That just one Premier League fixture is played in March, at home to rock-bottom Southampton, should set up the sort of April that sees Liverpool fans turn out in their droves to hammer home the significance of each assignment, which kicks off, as chance would have it, with a visit from Everton.
If the title triumph of 2020 had its shine slightly dimmed by the inability to properly celebrate it, those at Anfield for the run-in must do all they can to give themselves and the players the best chance possible to make sure they get to belatedly toast to a league crown five years on.
